Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock
13 people recommended it in 10 threads, 2015–2022.
What people on Hacker News said
Tetlock explains his work on the "Good Judgment Project" which is a kind of experiment he's been running for a few years, getting people to sign up and provide regular predictions for different questions (e.g., "Will the South African Government grant the Dalai Lama a visa within six months?")
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - How to be wrong less often. Based on the Good Judgement Project results.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Tetlock, Philip E. A study on people with above average ability to forecast feature events (mostly geo-political). Talks about measuring predictions and improving them.
Philip E. Tetlock - Superforecasting (how amateurs can consistently beat domain professionals in forecasting all kind of stuff)
The books "Superforecasting" and "Think again" helped me nail down when and why people (myself included) make mistakes and I think it helped me prevent making mistakes or recognize mistakes others are about to make better.
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock Completely changed how I look at political and financial pundits.
Where it comes up
- Ask HN: Books you read in 2016? 2016 · 3 recommendations
- Ask HN: What books have made the biggest impact on your mental models? 2017 · 2 recommendations
- Ask HN: Which books have made you a better thinker and problem solver? 2022 · 1 recommendation
- Ask HN: Do you recall any book or course that made a topic finally click? 2022 · 1 recommendation
- Ask HN: What Books Do You Recommend Reading for 2022? 2022 · 1 recommendation
- Ask HN: Best books you read in the past decade? 2019 · 1 recommendation
- Ask HN: Favorite nonfiction books of 2018? 2018 · 1 recommendation
- Ask HN: Books you read in 2018? 2018 · 1 recommendation
- Ask HN: Books you read in 2015? 2015 · 1 recommendation
- Ask HN: What book that you read in 2015 significantly affected how you think? 2015 · 1 recommendation